North America fuels Minnesota’s trade growth

Canada and Mexico have long been key markets for Minnesota businesses, and their importance to the state's economy has only grown in recent years. Since 2016, Minnesota trade has pivoted away from China and increasingly toward its North American partners, deepening supply chain integration across the continent, particularly in the state's manufacturing and natural resource sectors.

Below are four trends highlighting the growing role of North American trade for Minnesota: 

1. Minnesota exports to Canada surged by 49% and by 37% to Mexico since 2019, driving overall export growth. By contrast, exports to Minnesota’s next three largest markets – China, Germany and Japan – declined by -7%, -21% and -35% respectively.
    
2. Nearly half of Minnesota exports went to Canada and Mexico in 2023, up from about a third in 2019. In 2023, Minnesota exported nearly $7.1 billion in goods to Canada and over $3.3 billion to Mexico, totaling $10.4 billion combined.  Minnesota’s top exports to Canada are mineral fuel, oil ($1,003 M), vehicles ($996 M) and machinery ($862 M). Top exports to Mexico include vehicles ($562 M), machinery ($538 M) and cereals ($340 M).
    
3. Imports from Canada and Mexico accelerated in recent years, while imports from China declined in the wake of USMCA and tariffs on China. In 2016, thirty-eight percent of Minnesota’s total imports came from China and only 35% came from Canada and Mexico. This shifted in subsequent years, however. By 2023, 47% of Minnesota’s imports came from Canada and Mexico, and only 10% came from China.
    
4. North American trade is critical for supply chains in key Minnesota industries. Minnesota’s top three imported goods from Canada are the same as its top exported products --  minerals, fuel, oil ($9,000 M), vehicles ($437 M), and machinery ($630 M). This indicates that items often cross borders multiple times throughout the production process rather than only the transport of finished goods. Similar trends are seen in imports from Mexico. Machinery ($808 M) and electrical machinery ($688 M) are the two top imports, followed by optic and medical ($558 M) which have a strong presence in the state.